Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, June 20, 2021
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Jun 2021 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 20/0126Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 20/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 20/1957Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4546 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (21 Jun, 22 Jun, 23 Jun). III. Event probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 20 Jun 076 Predicted 21 Jun-23 Jun 078/078/078 90 Day Mean 20 Jun 076 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 19 Jun 005/003 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 006/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Jun-23 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 20 June 2021 - Space Ref
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