2 hurricanes, 2 tropical storms, 3 areas of tropical activity; None headed our way (so far) - WJXT News4JAX

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JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – The tropics are rather active right now, from Hurricane Paulette to Tropical Storms Sally and Teddy to Tropical Depressions Rene and 21, plus two areas we are watching for the potential for development. Despite the high volume of storms and systems, the long term forecast models forecast that we won’t see much from any of them.

Here’s what we expect with each system. For the sake of clarity, we’ll work from west to east, starting with what’s in the Gulf and ending with what is off of the coastline of Africa.

Tropical disturbance in the Gulf

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are associated with a weak area of low pressure. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while it moves slowly southwestward and then southward over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. The chance for formation is only around 10% over the next 5 days. We won’t see any effect on our local forecast from this system.

TRACKING THE TROPICS: Interactive map

Low chance to develop as it heads toward Mexico

Hurricane Sally

Hurricane Sally is expected to intensify further as it heads toward the Louisiana/Mississippi coastline. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Sally indicate the system has rapidly strengthened to a hurricane, with maximum sustained winds of around 85 mph with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. At 10 a.m, the center of Hurricane Sally was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 86.9 West. Sally is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the northwest tonight and a northward turn sometime on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Sally will move over the north-central Gulf of Mexico today, approach southeastern Louisiana tonight, and make landfall in the hurricane warning area on Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Afterward, Sally is expected to move slowly north-northeastward near the northern Gulf Coast through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next day or so, and Sally is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight, with additional strengthening possible before the center crosses the northern Gulf Coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles from the center.

Locally, after Sally makes landfall, the system will move across Mississippi and then Georgia, dragging tropical moisture across our area and enhancing our rain coverage and intensity for the middle of the week.

Sally will drag rain across us as if moves north and east.

Hurricane Paulette

Hurricane Paulette is making its way over Bermuda today and is expected to intensify further. At 11 a.m, the center of Hurricane Paulette was located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is moving toward the north near 14 mph, and this general motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph with higher gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles. A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph.

Paulette will not have any effect on our forecast locally, with the exception of slightly bumpier seas from a sloppy swell.

Hurricane Paulette

Tropical Depression Rene

Normally Tropical Depressions have numbers, not names, but Rene was briefly a Tropical Storm and has since weakened back into a depression, so it gets to keep it’s name.

At 11 a.m, the center of Tropical Depression Rene was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 48.3 West. The depression is stationary. A motion toward the west-southwest or southwest is forecast to begin later today and continue through dissipation. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast, and Rene is expected to become a remnant low tonight and dissipate by late Wednesday.

Rene will have no effect on our forecast.

TD Rene

Tropical Storm Teddy

At 11 a.m, the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 42.8 West. Teddy is moving toward the west near 14 mph, and a westward motion is expected to continue today, followed by a slightly slower west-northwestward motion tonight and Tuesday. A turn toward the northwest and a further decrease in forward speed is forecast by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Teddy is forecast to become a hurricane by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center.

The storm that eventually became Teddy was the one to watch according to the long term forecast models last week, but now the models agree Teddy will curve northward before approaching the U.S. and not have an effect on our area. we may see some sloppy surf from Teddy, but strong Northeasterly winds over us during that time will keep it pretty messy.

Tropical Storm Teddy

Tropical Storm Vicky

The newest named system in the Atlantic is Tropical Storm Vicky. It will be a short-lived storm, torn apart by shear later this week. Vicky will have no effect on our forecast.

The center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located near latitude 18.7 north, longitude 28.5 west. Vicky is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph and this motion is forecast to continue into this afternoon. A turn toward the northwest is forecast tonight, with a west-northwestward motion expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday night and Vicky is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.

Tropical Storm Vicky and the next disturbance to develop to the south of Vicky

Tropical disturbance near Africa

A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear to be conducive for slow development of the system this week as the wave moves westward at about 10 mph over the far eastern tropical Atlantic. This system has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days, and it is too soon to tell where this system will head if it forms.

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2 hurricanes, 2 tropical storms, 3 areas of tropical activity; None headed our way (so far) - WJXT News4JAX
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