The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to show “above normal” activity, with an estimated 14 to 21 named storms, up to 10 hurricanes and as many as six major hurricanes, scientists with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Tuesday.

The forecast outlines a hurricane season that would fall short of the most active one on record, in 2020, which had 30 named storms. Still, it would be the seventh consecutive above-normal year on record, said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad.

Warm seasonal sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea are expected to contribute to the activity this season, which starts June 1 and runs through November. Typically, 90% of storms in the region occur after August 1.

An average Atlantic hurricane season—defined by NOAA as storm frequency averaged between 1991 and 2020—produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes, of which three are classified as major hurricanes.

NOAA names tropical storms when their winds hit speeds of 39 miles an hour or higher. Storms whose winds reach 74 miles an hour or faster are classified as hurricanes. The most intense of those, characterized by winds of at least 111 miles an hour, are upgraded to major hurricane status.

NOAA’s calculations consider millions of data points measured across months, said Matthew Rosencrans, the agency’s lead for the seasonal hurricane outlook. These include surface sea temperatures collected by buoys, atmospheric temperature measurements taken by weather balloons and humidity levels measured by satellites.

NOAA also considers the influence of global weather and climate patterns. For example, an intense monsoon season off the coast of West Africa creates ideal conditions for storms in the Atlantic to form. Also, alternating “El Niño” heating and “La Niña” cooling conditions in the Pacific, known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, influence how many storms develop.

The agency pointed to the current cool La Niña Pacific conditions, which are linked with more-active hurricane years, and a strong west African monsoon season, as key factors influencing the activity of this year’s hurricane season.

A team at Colorado State University issued a similar forecast in April, predicting 19 named storms for the season. Nine of those are expected to grow to hurricanes, the team said, with four likely to intensify further to major hurricane strength.

Climate change is supercharging hurricanes, according to scientists of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, as well as NOAA and other national monitoring agencies. Heat-trapping greenhouse gases are warming the atmosphere, which in turn heats the ocean. Warmer ocean temperatures fuel more powerful and destructive storms, which bring more storm surge and dump more rain.

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In 2020, the annual global sea-surface temperature was 0.76 degree Celsius above the 20th century’s average, equivalent to 1.37 degrees Fahrenheit.

“One of the clear indicators of climate-change impact on hurricanes is really coming through the changes in rainfall,” said Kevin Reed, associate dean for research at the School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at Stony Brook University in New York, who studies climate and extreme weather events.

During the record-breaking 2020 season, Atlantic storms dumped 10% more rain over hourly intervals than they would have in the absence of climate change, according to an April study in the journal Nature Communications co-written by Dr. Reed.

Hurricane Harvey, which in 2017 inundated parts of Texas with more than 50 inches of rain, was 15% wetter than it would have been without climate change effects, according to a December 2017 study in Environmental Research Letters that examined the warming climate’s contribution to that event.

Changing global temperatures may also be shifting the paths of tropical storms poleward, according to a January study in the journal Nature Geoscience. Temperate regions that saw hurricanes only rarely are likely to experience them more frequently, that analysis found.

To prepare for hurricanes, NOAA urges residents of at-risk areas to consult state emergency websites to determine whether they live in an evacuation zone, plan multiple evacuation routes and stock up on basic supplies, including gasoline, food and water and medications. The agency also recommends keeping insurance policies up to date and making sure homes meet hurricane codes.

“Take those actions now,” Mr. Rosencrans said.

Write to Nidhi Subbaraman at Nidhi.Subbaraman@wsj.com