Google Search Activity Show Consumers Starting To Pull Back - Bloomberg

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A look at search activity on Google indicates that U.S. consumers may be cooling off a little bit.

Ben Breitholtz, a data scientist at Arbor Research, examines Google search activity as a gauge for consumer sentiment. On an episode of the “Odd Lots” podcast last year, he explained how watching this data was helpful in navigating the recovery in real time. Right now, he’s seeing some signs that the torrid pace of consumption we’ve seen is starting to cool just a little.

For one thing, he notes that searches related to anything about “going out” are starting to roll over. The blue categories in the chart below are for things like “hotel,” “car rental,” “flying” and “movie theater” and you can see they’ve declined since their heights this spring, even as society has gotten way more open.

Ben Breitholtz, Arbor Research

You also see it in housing. Numerous categories related to buying or renovating a home seem to have rolled over since the peak in April.

Ben Breitholtz, Arbor Research

What’s interesting is that this could have some explanatory power when it comes to the rally in Treasuries, as Ben’s work shows a connection between softening search activity and the change in rates.

Ben Breitholtz, Arbor Research

Meanwhile, on the clearly positive side, job-search activity has picked up lately, perhaps indicating some acceleration in payroll gains.

Ben Breitholtz, Arbor Research

For more on how Ben analyzes and collects data, listen to his episode here. 

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Google Search Activity Show Consumers Starting To Pull Back - Bloomberg
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