NEW JERSEY – A new report says eight New Jersey counties still have a "moderate" risk of coronavirus transmission even as the state has made significant progress since before the outbreak even began in March.
Thirteen counties in particular have shown significant progress since the state Department of Health has begun releasing weekly reports on the status of the outbreak (see the details below).
The DOH's "COVID-19 Activity Level Report," which is issued weekly, says that New Jersey's statewide activity has dropped to "low" for the first time since the state began identifying its status in mid-February.
Gov. Phil Murphy may address the report when he speaks to the public directly at 1 p.m. Wednesday. Patch will cover it live. Read more: WATCH LIVE: Gov. Phil Murphy Issues NJ Coronavirus, Reopen Update
The report also divides New Jersey into regions and assesses their rates of new cases, COVID-19-like illnesses and positivity rates.
Murphy said the new report provides regional metrics for health and safety risks "that have further guided our decision-making" in reopening New Jersey.
Indeed, the report perhaps played a role in Murphy's decision to announce big reopenings this week: indoor dining, indoor amusements and movie theaters. Read more: NJ's Reopen Day: Here's What You Can Do Now Amid Coronavirus
While the report has positive news, it's also sobering: All New Jersey counties have a new daily case rate that's at the moderate level, which is considered still a little too high to reopen more of the state.
"New Jersey has come a long way in fighting this virus, but we aren't out of the woods yet," Murphy said.
But Murphy also said that since the statewide activity is considered "low," schools can reopen safely for in-person instruction — a position that many teachers disagree with. Read more: NJ Teachers Develop Possible Back-To-School Coronavirus Rules
Health Commissioner Judith Persichilli said the report realizes the essential nature of having timely and accurate date. "It's essential to have accurate data to inform our response," she said.
Here is what the report says:
Eight counties are at a "moderate" risk of coronavirus transmission
The report divides New Jersey into six regions: Northwest, Northeast, Central West, Central East, Southwest and Southeast. It then looks at each region and assigns each a "current activity level" based on case rates, COVID-like illnesses and positivity rates.
The following is a breakdown of counties contained within each public health region: Northwest: Morris, Passaic, Sussex, Warren; Northeast: Bergen, Essex, Hudson; Central West: Hunterdon, Mercer, Somerset; Central East: Middlesex, Monmouth, Ocean, Union; South West: Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Salem; South East: Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland.
Based on the findings, here are the counties that are currently "moderate":
- Burlington
- Camden
- Gloucester
- Middlesex
- Monmouth
- Ocean
- Salem
- Union
These counties are currently "low" (some of them moved down from "moderate" from the week before):
- Atlantic (down from "moderate")
- Bergen
- Cape May (down from "moderate")
- Cumberland (down from "moderate")
- Essex
- Hudson
- Hunterdon (down from "moderate")
- Mercer (down from "moderate")
- Morris
- Passaic
- Somerset (down from "moderate")
- Sussex
- Warren
Here is the map:
Data
The state uses various date to determine the level of activity. Here they are:
- Case rate (per 100,000) is calculated as a proportion of the population — specifically, daily new COVID cases for every 100,000 people. Case rate is monitored as a seven-day average.
- COVID-like illness (CLI) is defined as fever and cough or dyspnea (shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, etc.) or the presence of coronavirus diagnosis codes. CLI is monitored as a seven-day weekly average.
- Percent positivity is the percentage of total positive tests out of all COVID-19 tests performed. Percent positivity is monitored as a seven-day average.
- The COVID-19 Activity Level Index (CALI) Score is calculated this way: In each region, each indicator is assigned a value based on the activity range it falls into; next, the values are averaged together and this rounded average gives the CALI Score; the statewide activity level is calculated by averaging the CALI Scores for the six regions.
Here is the data for each region, including their activity levels:
The state's COVID activity timeline
For the first time since before the outbreak began, the DOH says New Jersey's statewide activity is "low."
The timeline shows that the state was at a moderate level for nearly four months. It was "high" in late in April and May, and "very high" in late March and early April.
The moderate label was first assigned before the state even publicly identified a case: February 15th.
Here is the timeline:
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