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Will Tigers’ most important hot-stove season in years shut down on Dec. 1? - MLive.com

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It seems increasingly likely that Major League Baseball is headed toward its first work stoppage since 1994-1995.

The collective bargaining agreement between the players and the owners expires on Dec. 1, and there is little headway toward an agreement as the clock ticks.

A lockout and transactions freeze -- which is very likely what will happen if the contract expires without a new deal being reached -- would put a damper on the hot-stove season, especially here in Detroit, where the Tigers promise to be major players for the first time in years.

But it wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic.

In an ideal scenario, the lockout would just serve as a little cooling-off period in December, when the rest of the country is focused on the holidays and college bowl games and the like. When January arrives, baseball could ramp back up with a new agreement for the new year. By the time spring training rolled around, we’ll have forgotten all the unpleasantness, right?

A less-pleasant but still possible scenario is a lockout that extends into February, prompts a frantic few days of signing and a compressed spring training.

The worst-case scenario, of course, is too ugly to contemplate: A work stoppage that affects -- or even eliminates -- the regular season.

No one expects that to happen, but there are some worrisome signs.

It had previously been reported that Major League Baseball was looking to revamp the antiquated arbitration system, which is the way players with between three and six years of service time are compensated.

The Athletic unveiled details of the proposal this week and it’s more radical than expected. The league suggested paying players in the arbitration category from a predetermined pool of dollars using Fangraphs’ Wins Above Replacement as a way to apportion the money.

The proposal was widely mocked, although it’s no more arbitrary than the current system and would at least be more transparent.

But the idea will almost certainly get shot down by players. These type of pie-in-the-sky proposals are fine when the CBA is years away from expiration. But with the deadline approaching rapidly, it doesn’t seem helpful.

If the two sides are talking about a few tweaks here and there, there’s no reason why an agreement can’t be reached.

But if they’re talking about blowing up the financial system that has governed baseball for decades, it’s going to be a lot more complicated.

In the latter scenario, teams would also be a lot more cautious.

But ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote Tuesday that he isn’t so sure that November will be a quiet month. In fact, he thinks some teams could try to reel in some big names before the Dec. 1 CBA expiration.

Maybe that’s good news: Teams don’t foresee a work stoppage that could jeopardize the 2022 season.

Or maybe it’s bad news: Teams think this could go down to the wire before the start of spring training, and they’d rather sign players now than do so in a mad scramble.

For now, it’s been business as usual at the annual General Manager Meetings in Carlsbad, Calif.

Let’s hope it stays that way.

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Will Tigers’ most important hot-stove season in years shut down on Dec. 1? - MLive.com
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