Hurricane season is officially underway with the first named storm of the season developing yesterday. Tropical storm Andres is the earliest named storm ever to develop in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The system formed well off the west coast of Mexico and is not expected to threaten land, but still serves as a strong signal that the 2021 hurricane season has begun. While this is an early start to the season, it’s not predicted to be as busy as last year’s hurricane season with its record 30 named storms. This season may offer a bit of breathing room as compared to last year, but business leaders need to take a close look at some of the unusual aspects of this season’s forecast and prepare accordingly. Right now is the time for businesses, and residents, to begin understanding the forecast and checking weather risk plans in preparation for an active season for the Caribbean, Bahamas, and East coast of the U.S.
Early forecasts are predicting 20 named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes for the 2021 hurricane season, with the transitioning from a La Nina pattern to a neutral ENSO pattern. While the number of named storms looks to be above the 25-year average, it will still likely be a less active hurricane season than last year, which was not only active, but costly as well. Of the 12 hurricanes that made landfall in the U.S. in 2020, seven of them were billion-dollar disasters, which is a new record.
In addition to the above average frequency of storms, this season’s storms are expected to follow a track heading more likely up the East Coast and not be in the Gulf region. That’s good news for the western Gulf of Mexico, particularly the offshore oil and gas operators. Last year, this area suffered the largest drop in crude oil output since 2008, in part, due to Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Marco, which both came through the Gulf in mid-August, leading operators to reduce oil output for 15 days.
And while the global weather pattern suggests a lessened risk in these areas in 2021, similar past seasons resulted in a few storms entering the western Gulf of Mexico, so it’s still important to be prepared for hurricane risk in these highly active oil and gas operational areas. Most operators in the Gulf of Mexico began planning months in advance of this year’s tropical season with tabletop exercises and drills. These are necessary to ensure that all members of the organization are aware of protocols and procedures ahead of a significant weather event.
The enhanced risk areas for the 2021 season are the far eastern Gulf of Mexico and southeast U.S. coastline, as well as the New England and southeastern Canada coastal areas. Business risks in these areas are less focused on oil and gas, though shipping routes and large terminals in the Bahamas will need to be vigilant and prepared. In recent tropical seasons, major flooding events across the Carolinas and Florida have caused disruption to supply chains and created safety concerns for residents in those areas. Along the northeast U.S. coast, tropical systems generally move quickly and pose a wind damage risk to the electric utilities’ infrastructure, resulting in power outages and coastal flooding concerns. These East Coast hurricanes can be devastating, and Hurricane Isabel in 2003 is an example of that. Isabel made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina — approximately 100 miles south of Norfolk, Virginia, where significant storm surge damage occurred. Isabel is most remembered for the storm surges that created record high water levels — and the highest seen in nearly one hundred years. The storm was responsible for 17 deaths and more than $500 million in damage, including the Chesapeake Bay port and the U.S. Navy’s fleet and academy complex.
While we aren’t expecting as active a season as last year, it takes just one powerful hurricane to have a huge impact on the economy. No organization is ever exempt from the potential aftermath of a disaster and should have plans for managing a storm’s potential impact. FEMA and other organizations offer great planning tools and resources to help businesses get plans in place.
Businesses that use private weather companies will have the advantage of working with a professional meteorologist for evaluating and advising on potential severe weather impact particular to their operations, as well as advising days leading up and during the storm. While we may not keep the tropical storms at sea, with advanced weather modeling and forecasts, and planning we can minimize the risk and impact to communities and operations.
"activity" - Google News
May 10, 2021 at 09:10PM
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2021 Hurricane Season Will Challenge Businesses With Early, Increased Storm Activity - Forbes
"activity" - Google News
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