Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2020 - Space Ref

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Status Report From: Space Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
Posted: Sunday, July 19, 2020

Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 201 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2020 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 355 km/s at 19/0529Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 19/1139Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 19/1139Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 324 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (20 Jul, 21 Jul, 22 Jul). III. Event probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 19 Jul 069 Predicted 20 Jul-22 Jul 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 19 Jul 069 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Jul 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul 006/005-006/005-006/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul-22 Jul A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/05 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-severe storm 10/10/10

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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast 19 July 2020 - Space Ref
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