Beige Book: Activity increased in almost all districts but remained well-below pre-pandemic levels - ForexLive

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Summary of the Fed's anecdotal report on the economy

• Full report
  
• Prior report from May 27
• Outlooks remained highly uncertain, as contacts grappled with how long the COVID-19 pandemic would continue and the magnitude of its economic implications.
• Many contacts who have been retaining workers with help from the PPP said that going forward, the strength of demand would determine whether they can avoid layoffs.
• Contacts in nearly every District noted difficulty in bringing back workers because of health and safety concerns, childcare needs, and generous unemployment insurance benefits.
  
• Prices were little changed overall but vehicle prices were higher on low inventories
• St Louis: In comparison with our previous report, the outlook among contacts is slightly more pessimistic while also much more uncertain. The pace of recovery appears to have slowed since mid-June
  
• Dallas: Outlooks improved, but the upward trend in new COVID-19 cases has increased uncertainty.
• San Francisco: Economic activity in the Twelfth District contracted modestly
• Chicago: Economic activity in the Seventh District increased strongly in late May and June, but remained well below its pre-pandemic level. Contacts expected further growth in activity in the coming months, but most did not expect a full recovery until at least the second half of 2021

I was worried we might see more of talk of 'leveling off' in the recovery that we heard from Bostic and Mester last week but that's not really the case. There is certainly lots of uncertainty but aside from a few exceptions, there's no sense of a backslide here. Note though, that there were 20 mentions of PPP loans and the possibility of layoffs when they run out.

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Beige Book: Activity increased in almost all districts but remained well-below pre-pandemic levels - ForexLive
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