North Carolina Roy Cooper has got a doozy on his hands.
He’s a Democratic governor, up for reelection in a Republican-leaning Southern swing state, pushing a go-slow approach to reopening the economy as protests intensify and neighboring states move quicker.
But that’s just the start: How the first-term governor handles his state's reopening will likely dictate whether President Donald Trump and the Republican Party can forge ahead with a full-fledged convention in Charlotte this summer.
“Between the governor and the mayor of Charlotte, who is also a Democrat, they really do control whether or not [the Republican convention] will happen,” said David McLennan, director of the Meredith Poll, a statewide public opinion poll of North Carolina voters.
As one of a handful of Democratic governors in a Trump-friendly state, Cooper’s handling of the coronavirus is a test of his leadership and political savvy. So far, his wait-and-see approach to reopening North Carolina has boded well for him: A late April Meredith Poll showed two-thirds of North Carolinians — including a plurality of Republicans — approve of his job performance.
Those numbers have made Cooper a slight favorite to win a second term. But his popularity surge could be short-lived if the health crisis grinds on for months. Some Republicans have pushed Cooper to accelerate statewide reopening measures as other Southern states such as Georgia, Tennessee and neighboring South Carolina are doing in the face of skyrocketing unemployment and economic stress.
But what makes Cooper’s situation unique is the authority he wields over the other party’s national convention. Trump has been adamant about having a full-scale in-person convention, but as those plans forge ahead, Cooper will have to walk a fine line between protecting and alienating his constituents.
The governor could ban such a large gathering outright. Or he could limit the number of people allowed to gather in any given place. But any moves to curb the convention could inflame Trump and his base — and prove politically costly to Cooper in November.
“It would be horrible for the governor to get out and try to clamp down on a nominating convention,” said Daniel Barry, the former chairman of the Union County Republican Party. “It would take something very dramatic for the state or the City of Charlotte to react in such a fashion and pull the plug.”
Cooper has steered clear of predictions about the fate of the convention. Aides and Democrats in the state who work closely with him say he sees the event, which was expected to inject $200 million into the state’s economy, as a boon to North Carolina. If he’s forced to call it off or scale it back, they said, it will be because public health officials whose advice he has heeded say it's too dangerous.
Republican officials said they haven’t had extensive discussions with Cooper about the convention; most of the talks have been between Charlotte's Mayor Vi Lyles, a Democrat, and GOP brass. But they said they’re not concerned that Cooper will pump the brakes on their convention plans.
On April 28, Charlotte’s Democratic-dominated city council voted 6-5 to accept a $50 million grant from the Justice Department to cover insurance and security costs for the convention, marking an important step forward. Opponents said holding a 50,000-person convention would be impossible to pull off and dangerous to public health.
During an April 3 Twitter town hall, Lyles hesitated to echo the GOP’s full-speed-ahead message but said the city is "proceeding in that direction" [of hosting the convention] and has a contractual agreement with the Republican National Committee to do so.
Lyles addressed growing concerns during a second online forum on April 17, saying, “I don’t have an answer to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’ [about whether the convention will occur]. I have an answer to say we will be guided by the best decisions for our residents.”
Democrats in the state who want the convention mainly point to the economic lift it would provide. Republicans see it as a needed boost for Trump’s base and means of propelling Cooper’s challenger, Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, in the fall governor’s race.
According to a report from the governor’s office, North Carolina is flattening its coronavirus curve. But if North Carolina sees a second wave of infections close to August, Cooper will have to make a decision on whether or not Trump’s show will go on.
Neighboring states like South Carolina, Georgia and Tennessee relaxed stay-at-home orders as early as April 30, allowing residents to begin dining in restaurants and shopping in retail stores.
Cooper, by contrast, has taken a more measured approach. He’s employed a three-phase reopening strategy that allows nonessential businesses to reopen as early as Saturday but keeps a stay-at-home order in place for two to three more weeks, well beyond the edicts of other Deep South states.
“I know people want their lives and their livelihoods back,” Cooper said at an April 23 news conference at which he unveiled his reopening plans. “And I have a plan to do that. But first, we need to hit certain metrics because the health and safety of North Carolinians is our No. 1 priority.”
Cooper declined an interview request. But a senior political adviser, Morgan Jackson, said the governor "is not making any decisions based on Facebook comments and angry tweets, or signs that people are walking around carrying. He’s making them on health experts, data, science and also in consultation with business leaders and economists.”
Cooper, 62, has been a fixture in North Carolina for more than three decades, including four terms as state attorney general. In 2007, he made national news in the infamous Duke lacrosse case, declaring that three players accused of sexual assault were victims of a “tragic rush to accuse.” In 2016, Cooper defeated Republican Gov. Pat McCrory after an uproar over the state’s “bathroom” law, becoming the first person to defeat a sitting governor in modern state history.
Cooper’s admirers describe his leadership style and personality as low-key and steady. His critics — led by his Republican opponent Forest — say lethargic is a more apt description.
“It is time for Governor Cooper to have a sense of urgency to reopen our economy and allow people to return to their livelihoods,” Forest said in an April 22 statement, citing Southern governors who had already reopened their states. “North Carolina must have a sense of urgency to reopen. We can do two things at once, protect lives and livelihoods. The citizens of our great state deserve nothing less.”
In late May, Charlotte is still planning to host the Coca-Cola 600 NASCAR race, an event that typically draws 100,000 people but which will take place this year without fans. It's being watched closely for signs of whether the city can host a major event, albeit one not nearly as large as a normal Republican convention.
Dr. Mandy Cohen, North Carolina's Health and Human Services secretary, has been a leading adviser to the governor in his coronavirus response. Several of Cohen's health initiatives have won broad bipartisan support in the state, particularly her approach to Medicaid reform. But she’s also a former Obama administration official, and for a time she helped run Obamacare itself. That background could fuel even more controversy in a volatile fight over the safety of a GOP convention.
Democrats, who have begun floating ideas for a scaled-back or virtual convention in July, see Cooper’s reelection as integral to the party’s quest to win back the South.
Doug Wilson, a North Carolina-based Democratic political strategist, said Cooper and three other Democratic governors from the South — Andy Beshear of Kentucky, John Bel Edwards of Louisiana and Ralph Northam of Virginia — are success stories in that effort.
All have shown an "ability to be able to balance out what your party wants you to do and what governing is needed," Wilson said. "Cooper has been able to do a good job of … holding to progressive policies that don’t scare away independents.”
Cooper’s cordial relations with some prominent state Republicans hasn't hurt, either. Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), also facing reelection in November, has been publicly supportive of the governor’s reopening strategy, lauding him for his inclusion of public health officials.
Tillis has addressed the convention’s prospects with some reticence. During an early April town hall with constituents, the senator floated the possibility of a later convention date.
Before the onset of the coronavirus in North Carolina, Cooper enjoyed approval ratings consistently around 50 percent. The bipartisan goodwill he’s engendered from his handling of the virus so far has given Democrats confidence he’ll win a second term, even if he moves to curb Republicans’ pep rally three months before Election Day.
“I think that he’s in a good position now. He knows that this can’t be the permanent situation,” Wilson said. “Eventually the state is gonna have to reopen.”
Alex Isenstadt and Joanne Kenen contributed to this report.
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